Geopolitical Early Warning
& Risk Analysis

Calibrated intelligence for a complex world

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Scientific Methodology

Our intelligence process is built on rigorous scientific principles. Every prediction undergoes walk-forward backtesting, calibrated probability assessment, and independent ground-truth validation. We measure what matters and publish our accuracy — because trust requires transparency.

Walk-Forward Backtesting
Every model is tested on out-of-sample data before deployment
Calibrated Probabilities
When we say 70%, it happens ~70% of the time
Ground-Truth Validation
Independent verification against real-world outcomes
OSINT Analysis
Hundreds of open sources processed daily by AI analysts
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Public Track Record

Every prediction is publicly documented and verifiable. We believe in radical transparency — our track record is open for anyone to audit.

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Verified Predictions
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Calibrated Accuracy
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Intelligence Sources

Hundreds of sources processed daily by AI analysts

GDELT
OSINT
15+ Languages
Seismic Data
Weather
Conflict Monitoring
Supply Chain
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Enterprise Risk Briefings

Custom geopolitical risk analysis for organizations. Tailored intelligence briefings, early warning alerts, and strategic advisory.

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